Whisper Number: How Will Carnival’s Stock Move After Earnings?
Carnival Corp. (NYSE:CCL) is expected to report earnings on Thursday, December 19. The whisper number is $0.02, two cents ahead of the analysts’ estimate. Carnival has a 77 percent positive surprise history, having topped the whisper in 17 of the 23 earnings reports for which we have data.
– Beat whisper: 17 qtrs
– Met whisper: 1 qtrs
– Missed whisper: 4 qtrs
Our primary focus is on post earnings price movement. Knowing how likely a stock’s price will move following an earnings report can help you determine the best action to take (long or short). In other words, we look at what happens when the company beats or misses the whisper number expectation.
The table below indicates the average post earnings price movement within a one and thirty trading day timeframe.
The strongest price movement of -1.2 percent comes within five trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and +10.5 percent within thirty trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number. Although the strongest price moves are ‘opposite’, the overall average price move is ‘positive’ (beat the whisper number and see strength, miss and see strength) when the company reports earnings.
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John Scherr is the founder and President of WhisperNumber.com, an independent financial research firm focused on earnings expectations. He is a regular contributor to CNBC and Fox Business Network, and has been featured in Barron’s, The Wall Street Journal, and MarketWatch. He is considered a leading expert on ‘whisper numbers’ and post earnings price movement analysis. WhisperNumber.com provides specific earnings trade alerts to take advantage of earnings report price movement with their Whisper Reactors subscription service.