Your MUST-READ Morning Stock Futures Cheat Sheet: Index futures down after JPM miss
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The Precise Take – Index futures down after JPM miss
Big Picture Analysis: Yesterday, the ES sold off after the open and probed as low as 1280.75 before sharply rebounding higher, overnight hitting 1295.00 just before the European open. As we write, most of these gains have been given back, led by financials after a JPM earnings disappointment. Some have noted the ascending wedge in the ES on the daily (more compelling on the combined session chart), which indeed might be susceptible to a sharp pullback on a break. However, in the 135 minute chart below, a considerable amount of volume has traded upwards of 1270 and ought to contain the first pullback. The flip side is that a break below would likely hit an avalanche of stops and precipitate a sharp selloff, which is what happened in January 2010.
Monday is a US holiday and the markets will be closed, so we might see some squaring ahead of the truncated opex week. Consumer Sentiment at 9:55 am EST is often a market mover.
Explanation of 60 minute chart: We have reintroduced some elements into the 60 minute chart, such as the projected range, which long time readers will recognize from the 30 minute chart we used to publish prior to August, 2011. The reason we had stopped was the expansion of daily range and headline driven market made the projections too arbitrary and not useful. Should the bear market reassert, we may revert once again, but for now, below is how to read the chart. (In progress is a way to show more granularity on the right edge price axis.)
The thin horizontal boxes are support and resistance areas of varying strength. The yellow vertical box to the right is the projected range. Support and resistance areas that fall at or within its boundaries are ripe for countertrend plays. The gray boxes are neutral zones, where we would still consider countertrend plays, but with a bit more caution. The blue and red vertical boxes mark the areas above and below which the market could easily get away from us and countertrend plays are much more risky. It’s trend days that tend to move only in one direction, closing at the extreme, that tend to punish day traders the most (and keep in mind that down moves are often much more quicker than up moves).
It’s up to readers to determine how to read the market at the various support and resistance areas (whether to hold or fade), but the following briefly explains our approach. Upon price reaching key support and resistance areas, we monitor market dynamics. Such areas are identified by prior price action areas, floor trader pivots, 50% retracements, and various volume-based tools, including a simplified MarketProfile framework and MIDAS. The dynamics we monitor include short term price charts, order flow (market depth), the tape (time & sales), relative volume, and sentiment (SUCH AS NYSE TICK).
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