Your MUST-READ Morning Stock Futures Cheat Sheet: Stalling at resistance (again)

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The Precise Take – Stalling at resistance (again)

Big Picture Analysis:  Yesterday, after nominally exceeding the highs in the ES from one month ago, another FT story in the closing hour facilitated a near 15 handle drop into the close.  Overnight, support has been found at 1190.  Yesterday’s selloff notwithstanding (which we might chalk off a bit due to an overbought status), the market has been discounting bad news a bit better on this rally than previous rallies.  Accordingly, we can envision two scenarios where the bulls rally to the 200 day MA at about 1260.  The first is where support at 1180 holds over the next few days where the market consolidates and bases for a move higher.  The second is where a quick drop to 1160 is met with strong buying and resumption of the rally.  Below 1150 and we might expect a test of at least 1100 or material new lows.

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Chart in Focus:  Though the news out of Europe (and China, to an extent) has been a drag on the US markets for several months, money supply growth and Consumer & Industrial loans here have been robust, which was cause for our continued bullishness in the early phase of the decline.  How Europe resolves itself is still up in the air (and unlikely to be finalized for at least another month), but if the decision is to “print”, we would expect a global risk-on rally.

Today’s  Scheduled News (all times EDT)

Major Market Movers
None

Minor Market Movers
EIA Petroleum Stats at 10:30 am
30 Yr Bond Auction at 1:00 pm
Treasury Budget at 2:00 pm

Tomorrow’s Scheduled News

Major Market Movers
Retail Sales at 8:30 am
Consumer Sentiment at 9:55 am

Minor Market Movers
Import & Export prices at 8:30 am
Business Inventories at 10:00 am