Can Wal-Mart Continue to Outperform?

With shares of Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) trading around $79, is WMT an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let’s analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework.

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Wal-Mart operates retail stores in various formats around the world. The company aims to price items at the lowest price every day. Wal-Mart operates in three business segments: the Walmart U.S. segment, the Walmart international segment, and the Sam’s Club segment. It manages retail stores, restaurants, discount stores, supermarkets, super centers, hypermarkets, warehouse clubs, apparel stores, Sam’s Clubs, neighborhood markets, and other small formats, as well as Walmart.com and SamsClub.com. Through its retail channels, Wal-Mart is able to provide a variety of products and services at affordable prices to consumers and companies worldwide.

Wal-Mart is in the doghouse again in China, and this time, it’s all thanks to donkey meat. According to NBC News, the big-box retailer has been forced to recall donkey meat at some of its outlets in China on account of tests showing that the product contains the DNA of other animals. Wal-Mart confirmed via social media on Wednesday night that the meat is tainted and customers will be reimbursed for the product. The company said it is cooperating with authorities like the Shandong Food and Drug Administration, which are in the process of investigating Wal-Mart’s Chinese supplier.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Strong

Wal-Mart stock has made positive progress in recent quarters. The stock is currently trading near all-time highs and looks set to continue. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Wal-Mart is trading above its rising key averages, which signals neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

WMT

Source: Thinkorswim

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Wal-Mart options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Wal-Mart options

15.9%

93%

90%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very significant amount of call and put options contracts as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

February Options

Flat

Average

March Options

Flat

Average

As of Thursday, there is average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very significant amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter Over Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Wal-Mart’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Wal-Mart look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q3

2013 Q2

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

5.56%

5.93%

4.59%

11.14%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

1.66%

1.68%

1.04%

3.86%

Earnings Reaction

0.22%

-2.6%

-1.7%

1.51%

Wal-Mart has seen increasing earnings and revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have had mixed feelings about Wal-Mart’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Average Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Wal-Mart stock done relative to its peers – Target (NYSE:TGT), Costco (NASDAQ:COST), and Kohl’s (NYSE:KSS) — and sector?

Wal-Mart

Target

Costco

Kohl’s

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

0.79%

1.79%

-0.38%

0.99%

1.79%

Wal-Mart has been an average relative performer, year to date.

Conclusion

Wal-Mart is a retail company that provides a variety of products and services to consumers and companies worldwide. The company has been forced to recall donkey meat at some of its outlets in China on account of tests showing that the product contains the DNA of other animals. The stock has made some progress in recent quarters and is currently trading near all-time highs. Over the last four quarters, earnings and revenues have been increasing. However, investors have had mixed feelings about Wal-Mart’s recent earnings announcements. Relative to its peers and sector, Wal-Mart has been an average year-to-date performer. Look for Wal-Mart to continue to OUTPERFORM.

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