Analyst: Apple Barometer Indicates Strong September Sales

Source: Apple.comApple (NASDAQ:AAPL) recorded strong sales growth in September wrote Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Brian White in a recent note to investors. White based his September sales estimate on information from his “Apple Barometer,” an index of Taiwan-based suppliers that provide many components for the iPhone maker.

According to White, the Apple Barometer indicated that September sales rose approximately 9 to 10 percent month-over-month. He noted that this rate of growth is close to the average rate of growth that has been seen in the previous eight years.

Although this would seem to indicate that Apple’s sales will be similar to previous launches, the analyst also pointed out that Apple switched from summer iPhone launches to fall iPhone launches in 2011. This makes it difficult to derive any useful conclusions from this long-term September sales comparison. However, White believes that Apple is definitely beating its MoM growth rate from last September. Last year, Apple recorded a 3 percent MoM growth rate, well below this year’s estimated rate of 9 to 10 percent.

Despite strong September sales, White predicted that overall sales in the September quarter will still fall short of last year’s. According to the analyst, Apple’s September quarter sales declined 3 to 4 percent from the previous quarter.

Looking ahead, the Cantor Fitzgerald analyst sees a lot of growth potential in Apple’s expected October iPad refresh. The iPad 5 is expected to be the most significantly redesigned iPad in the past several iterations. Since many current iPad owners will want to upgrade to the redesigned device, White believes that Apple’s iPad refresh could be a major catalyst for Apple.

Here’s how Apple traded over the past five trading sessions.


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