Can Microsoft Continue This Bullish Run?

With shares of Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) trading around $34, is MSFT an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let’s analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Microsoft is engaged in developing, licensing, and supporting a wide range of software products and services. The company also designs and sells hardware, and delivers online advertising to customers. It operates in five segments: Windows & Windows Live Division, Server and Tools, Online Services Division, Microsoft Business Division, and Entertainment and Devices Division. Through its array of divisions, Microsoft is able to provide products and services to a wide range of consumers and businesses across different industries around the world. As a mature company, Microsoft is also offering a stable dividend that is currently yielding around 2.64 percent annually.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Strong

Microsoft stock has been part of a range extending back several years. The stock has surged higher and is now at the top-end of its range so it may need some time here. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Microsoft is trading slightly above its rising key averages which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

MSFT

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Microsoft options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Microsoft Options

24.92%

63%

62%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a significant amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

July Options

Flat

Average

August Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a significant amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Mixed Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Microsoft’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Microsoft look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

2012 Q3

2012 Q2

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

20.00%

-2.56%

-22.06%

-108.70%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

17.71%

2.78%

-7.83%

3.97%

Earnings Reaction

3.36%

0.90%

-2.91%

-1.76%

Microsoft has seen mixed earnings and rising revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have been upbeat about Microsoft’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Excellent Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Microsoft stock done relative to its peers, Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), and sector?

Microsoft

Oracle

Apple

Google

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

27.29%

-7.86%

-20.87%

25.31%

11.56%

Microsoft has been a relative performance leader, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Microsoft provides innovative and valuable software products to consumers and companies all around the world. The stock has made impressive gains this year but is now trading near the top-end of a range extending back several years. Over the last four quarters, earnings have been mixed and revenue figures have been rising which have maintained investors in the company upbeat. Relative to its peers and sector, Microsoft has been a year-to-date performance leader. Look for Microsoft to OUTPERFORM.

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