Will BlackBerry Benefit From a New CEO?

With shares of BlackBerry (NASDAQ:BBRY) trading around $6, is BBRY an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let’s analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

BlackBerry is a designer, manufacturer, and marketer of wireless solutions for the worldwide mobile communications market. Through the development of integrated hardware, software, and services it provides platforms and solutions for seamless access to information such as email, voice, instant messaging, SMS, Internet, intranet-based applications, and browsing. Its products and services feature the BlackBerry wireless solution, the Research In Motion Wireless Handheld product line, the BlackBerry PlayBook tablet, software development tools, and other software and hardware.

BlackBerry announced the departure of three top executives as new Chief Executive Officer John Chen shifts away from the consumer market to try to turn around the struggling smartphone maker. Chief Financial Officer Brian Bidulka is departing after eight years at BlackBerry and will be replaced by James Yersh, who had been controller and head of compliance, the company said. Chief Operating Officer Kristian Tear and Chief Marketing Officer Frank Boulben, who were hired under previous CEO Thorsten Heins, are both leaving.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Weak

BlackBerry stock has struggled to make positive progress in the last several years. The stock is currently trading near all time lows. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, BlackBerry is trading below its rising key averages, which signal neutral to bearish price action in the near-term.

BBRY

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of BlackBerry options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

BlackBerry Options

70.71%

26%

24%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a small amount of call and put options contracts as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

December Options

Steep

Average

January Options

Steep

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and high demand by put buyers or low demand by put sellers, all neutral to bearish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a small amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bearish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Mixed Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on BlackBerry’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for BlackBerry look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q2

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

2012 Q3

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

-308.89%

83.84%

178.41%

-96.08%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

-45.02%

9.37%

-35.97%

-47.21%

Earnings Reaction

-0.99%

-27.76%

-0.89%

-22.73%

BlackBerry has seen mixed earnings and decreasing revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have had conflicting feelings about BlackBerry’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Weak Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has BlackBerry stock done relative to its peers, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), Nokia (NYSE:NOK), and sector?

Blackberry

Apple

Google

Nokia

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

-46.70%

-0.41%

49.42%

103.50%

25.45%

BlackBerry has been a poor relative performer, year-to-date.

Conclusion

BlackBerry provides innovative wireless communication products to consumers and companies worldwide. The company announced the departure of three top executives. The stock has not done well in recent years and is now trading near all time lows. Over the last four quarters, earnings have been mixed while revenues have been decreasing which has produced conflicting feelings among investors. Relative to its peers and sector, BlackBerry has been a weak year-to-date performer. WAIT AND SEE what BlackBerry does this quarter.

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