Can the S&P 500 Really Double in 2 Years?
With the S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY) up on average over 5% every month since The Bernank told us at Jackson Hole, Wyo the Fed’s new 3rd mandate is managing the stock market…. and up 100% from the intraday low of S&P 666 in March 2009 – no prediction is now out of bounds. So if we did 100% in 2 years, why not another 100% in 2 years from now? I think the NASDAQ would actually reach March 2000 highs if we can pull off the “double double” in 4 years. Further, this sort of appreciation will fix many of those nasty pension underfunding problems, make us all rich so we can afford $6 bread, and let us watch the global food riots on HDTV paying the $402 monthly cable bill. Works for me.
Thus far in 2011 about 6.5 weeks in, we’re on pace for a 50% year – which is exactly the type of pace we need to continue to get to S&P 2800 in 2013. Laszlo Birinyi tells CNBC that might be a stretch goal but we should expect at least another 30% from here. At 5% a month “Bernank guaranteed”, Lazlo seems bearish with that last call. ;)
- The S&P will more than double in the next two-and-a-half years in a best-case scenario, legendary investor Laszlo Birinyi Jr., president and founder of Birinyi Associates, told CNBC Wednesday. “There was an extraordinary start to this bull market, and when you have starts similar to this, you end up with some very substantial moves,” added Birinyi, who was head of equities at Salomon Brothers during the go-go 80’s. “We’re out there and very comfortable being bullish.”
- Birinyi’s lowest prediction is that the S&P rise 31 percent by September of 2013. (Lazlo, we could get 31% by the time QE3 is whispered in the halls of the Fed)
- The investor said that he and his associates use market activity and past patterns to assess market moves. “Looking at the market’s history, which we found to be a usefeul guide in the past and has been a useful guide for the last two years, we’re going to continue to dance with who ‘brung’ us,” he added. (I was unable to find a photo of Bernanke doing the tango, otherwise that is the picture I’d be inserting here – please no Chuck “dance until the music stops” Prince jokes)
5 minute video
Position: Boo yah
This is a guest post written by Trader Mark who runs the blog Fund My Mutual Fund.
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