Does Boeing Belong in Your Portfolio?

With shares of Boeing (NYSE:BA) trading around $136, is BA an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let’s analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Boeing is an aerospace company. It focuses primarily on engineering, information technology, research and development, test and evaluation, technology strategy development, environmental remediation management, and intellectual property management. The company operates in five segments: Commercial Airplanes, Boeing Military Aircraft, Network & Space Systems, Global Services & Support, and Boeing Capital Corp.

Boeing vice president and general manager Jack Jones told Reuters on Thursday that the company is close to hitting its production target of 10 787 Dreamliner jets pet month, which would be the fastest build rate of any airplane Boeing has produced to date. Boeing delivered 54 jets through November and, if it hits its target, could break 60 for the year despite a three-month production delay due to battery issues with the jet. Boeing is focusing an enormous amount of attention on its commercial division in light of waning government business for its defense division and waxing demand for commercial jets from around the world. The 10 plane production target is just a stepping stone to a target of 12 planes per month by mid-2016, and of 14 per month by about 2019. Boeing estimates that between 2013 and 2032, the world will demand 35,280 airplanes valued at $4.84 trillion. Most of this demand is expected to come from Asia Pacific ($1.89 trillion, or about 39 percent of total) and Europe ($1 trillion, or about 20 percent of total).

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Strong

Boeing stock has been surging higher in recent quarters. The stock is currently trading near all time highs and looks poised to continue. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Boeing is trading above its rising key averages, which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

BA

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Boeing options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Boeing options

23.20%

33%

31%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a minimal amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

January Options

Flat

Average

February Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a minimal amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Boeing’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Boeing look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q3

2013 Q2

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

11.85%

11.02%

18.03%

-30.91%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

10.61%

9.05%

-2.53%

14.05%

Earnings Reaction

5.33%

-0.77%

3.00%

1.27%

Boeing has seen rising earnings and revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have been pleased with Boeing’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Excellent Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Boeing stock done relative to its peers, Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT), Spirit Aerosystems (NYSE:SPR), Northrop Grumman (NYSE:NOC), and sector?

Boeing

Lockheed Martin

Spirit Aerosystems

Northrop Grumman

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

82.58%

56.65%

98.17%

67.05%

77.11%

Boeing has been a relative performance leader, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Boeing is an aerospace company and provider of aircrafts and related products and services to corporations and governments worldwide. The company is close to hitting its production target of 10 787 Dreamliner jets pet month, which would be the fastest build rate of any airplane Boeing has produced to date. The stock has been surging higher and is now trading near all time highs. Over the last four quarters, earnings and revenue figures have increased, leaving investors happy. Relative to its peers and sector, Boeing has been a year-to-date performance leader. Look for Boeing to OUTPERFORM.

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