Is T-Mobile a Good Portfolio Play?

With shares of T-Mobile (NASDAQ:TMUS) trading around $33, is TMUS an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let’s analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

T-Mobile offers mobile communications services under the T-Mobile brands in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Its service offerings include postpaid and prepaid wireless voice, messaging and data services, mobile broadband, and wholesale wireless services.

T-Mobile agreed to buy airwaves from Verizon Wireless (NYSE:VZ) for about $2.4 billion in cash as part of a spectrum swap that will give both companies more network capacity in areas where they need it. T-Mobile, the fourth-largest U.S. wireless carrier, will purchase 700-megahertz A-block spectrum licenses from Verizon, according to a statement yesterday. As part of the exchange, Verizon, the largest U.S. wireless carrier, will get so-called AWS and PCS licenses, which have a combined value of about $950 million. The deal will provide T-Mobile with a big swath of low-band frequencies — a type of spectrum that Chief Operating Officer Jim Alling has said are the missing piece of its network coverage. Verizon, meanwhile, can use T-Mobile’s so-called AWS airwaves to relieve congestion in cities where network performance has suffered due to heavy traffic.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Strong

T-Mobile stock has been surging higher since its initial public offering. The stock is currently trading near all time highs and looks set to continue this path. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, T-Mobile is trading above its rising key averages, which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

TMUS

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of T-Mobile options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

T-Mobile options

40.91%

46%

43%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a significant amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

February Options

Flat

Average

March Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a significant amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Mixed Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on T-Mobile’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for T-Mobile look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q3

2013 Q2

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

N/A

N/A

-16.67%

-65.50%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

N/A

27.45%

0.82%

3.73%

Earnings Reaction

-0.77%

4.12%

-0.78%

N/A

T-Mobile has seen mixed earnings and increasing revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have been pleased with T-Mobile’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Excellent Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has T-Mobile stock done relative to its peers, Verizon (NYSE:VZ), AT&T (NYSE:T), Sprint (NYSE:S), and sector?

T-Mobile

Verizon

AT&T

Sprint

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

-0.15%

0.10%

-0.60%

-5.29%

-2.48%

T-Mobile has been a relative performance leader, year-to-date.

Conclusion

T-Mobile is attempting to revolutionize the communications industry by providing less restricted products and services to consumers and companies. The company has agreed to buy airwaves from Verizon Wireless for about $2.4 billion in cash. The stock has been surging higher since its IPO and is currently trading near all time highs. Over the last four quarters, earnings have been mixed while revenues have been rising, which has left investors pleased about recent earnings announcements. Relative to its peers and sector, T-Mobile has been a year-to-date performance leader. Look for T-Mobile to OUTPERFORM.

Using a solid investing framework such as this can help improve your stock-picking skills. Don’t waste another minute — click here and get our CHEAT SHEET stock picks now.

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