Will Pepsi Continue to Trade Near Highs for the Year?

With shares of Pepsi (NYSE:PEP) trading around $85, is PEP an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let’s analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Pepsi operates as a food and beverage company worldwide. The company is organized into four business units: PepsiCo Americas Foods, PepsiCo Americas Beverages, PepsiCo Europe, and PepsiCo Asia, Middle East, and Africa. It manufactures, markets, and sells a range of salty, convenient, sweet and grain-based snacks, carbonated and non-carbonated beverages, dairy products, and other foods. Convenience foods are seeing significant demand worldwide as consumers in growing economies are opting for these products. Pepsi stands to see a continued rise in profits for many years as a leading provider of quick, convenient, inexpensive, and enjoyable products worldwide.

Pepsi may be facing the reality of a declining number of soda drinkers in North America, but the beverage and food company isn’t letting any depressing forecasts get the best of its competitive spirit. After reporting modest third-quarter earnings in mid-October, the soda maker welcomed the Halloween season by taking a jab at longtime rival Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), effectively proving to consumers that the company is still alive and kicking. Consumers enjoyed the risk Pepsi’s Belgian ad agency took by directly mentioning a competitor in its marketing effort. Close inspection of the ad highlights how the Purchase, New York-based company avoided a copyright lawsuit by cleverly interchanging Coca-Cola’s “L” and “C.”

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Strong

Pepsi stock has seen a consistent uptrend in the last several years. The stock is currently trading near highs and looks poised to continue. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Pepsi is trading above its rising key averages, which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.


(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Pepsi options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Pepsi Options




What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a minimal amount of call and put options contracts as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

December Options



January Options



As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a minimal amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Pepsi’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Pepsi look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q3

2013 Q2

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)





Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)





Earnings Reaction





Pepsi has seen increasing earnings and revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have been optimistic about Pepsi’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Excellent Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Pepsi stock done relative to its peers, Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), Dr.Pepper Snapple (NAYSE:DPS), Monster Beverage (NASDAQ:MNST), and sector?



Dr.Pepper Snapple

Monster Beverage


Year-to-Date Return






Pepsi has been a relative performance leader, year-to-date.


Pepsi provides convenient and affordable beverage and food items to consumers in a multitude of countries around the world. The company may be facing the reality of a declining number of soda drinkers in North America, but the beverage and food company isn’t letting any depressing forecasts get the best of its competitive spirit. The stock has been moving higher in recent years and is now consolidating near highs for the year. Over the last four quarters, earnings and revenues have been rising, which has left investors optimistic about earnings announcements. Relative to its peers and sector, Pepsi has been a year-to-date performance leader. Look for Pepsi to OUTPERFORM.

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