Will Recent News Hurt Boeing?

With shares of Boeing (NYSE:BA) trading around $132, is BA an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let’s analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Boeing is an aerospace company. It focuses primarily on engineering, information technology, research and development, test and evaluation, technology strategy development, environmental remediation management, and intellectual property management. The company operates in five segments: Commercial Airplanes, Boeing Military Aircraft, Network & Space Systems, Global Services & Support, and Boeing Capital Corp.

The ongoing conflict between Boeing and union machinists in Washington state over the construction of the planemaker’s new 777X jets appeared to reach a breaking point last week when Boeing announced it was soliciting bids from over a dozen locations. But, a recent mistake in a full-page ad by the Washington Aerospace Partnership aimed at keeping Boeing in the state has raised some interesting questions, even if it was a “cringe-worthy error,” as a spokesperson for the group admitted. The error in question revolved around a full-page ad that mistakenly superimposed a photo of a European-made Airbus A319 with the text “The Future of Washington.” A hugely ironic oversight by the group members, the mistake has had the unintended consequence of imagining what a future without Boeing might consist of — and more importantly, imagining a future with Boeing rival Airbus.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Strong

Boeing stock has been surging higher in recent quarters. The stock is currently pulling back from highs and may need time to consolidate before heading higher. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Boeing is trading above its rising key averages, which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

BA

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Boeing options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Boeing options

23.37%

40%

38%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a significant amount of call and put options contracts as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

December Options

Flat

Average

January Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a significant amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Boeing’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Boeing look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q3

2013 Q2

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

11.85%

11.02%

18.03%

-30.91%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

10.61%

9.05%

-2.53%

14.05%

Earnings Reaction

5.33%

-0.77%

3.00%

1.27%

Boeing has seen increasing earnings and revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have been pleased with Boeing’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Excellent Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Boeing stock done relative to its peers, Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT), Spirit Aerosystems (NYSE:SPR), Northrop Grumman (NYSE:NOC), and sector?

Boeing

Lockheed Martin

Spirit Aerosystems

Northrop Grumman

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

75.96%

48.33%

90.98%

62.98%

70.56%

Boeing has been a relative performance leader, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Boeing is an aerospace company and provider of aircrafts and related products and services to corporations and governments worldwide. The company’s ongoing conflict with union machinists in Washington state over the construction of the planemaker’s new 777X jets appeared to reach a breaking point last week when Boeing announced it was soliciting bids from over a dozen locations. The stock has been surging higher but is now pulling back from highs. Over the last four quarters, earnings and revenue figures have increased, leaving investors happy. Relative to its peers and sector, Boeing has been a year-to-date performance leader. Look for Boeing to OUTPERFORM.

Using a solid investing framework such as this can help improve your stock-picking skills. Don’t waste another minute — click here and get our CHEAT SHEET stock picks now.