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Doug Short, Ph.d, is the author of
March 10, 2014
Is the Stock Market Cheap?
A standard way to investigate market valuation is to study the historic price-to-earnings ratio using reported earnings for the trailing twelve months.
December 07, 2013
Is the Stock Market Cheap?
Doug Short discusses the history of market valuations and how it suggests a cautious perspective.
November 04, 2013
How Cheap Is the Stock Market, If at All?
Here is a new update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates.
October 14, 2013
The 4 Bad Bears in U.S. Economic History
Let's take a look at the Four Bad Bears in U.S. history since the market peak in 1929.
September 30, 2013
Household Net Worth: Here’s the ‘Real’ Story
Household net worth from the latest Flow of Funds report shows a distinct bubble in net worth that peaked in Q4 2007 with a trough in Q1 2009.
September 28, 2013
The Fed Balance Sheet: What is Uncle Sam’s Largest Asset?
Student loans may be a liability on the consumer balance sheet, but they constitute an asset for Uncle Sam.
August 05, 2013
Market Valuation, Inflation, Treasury Yields: Clues from the Past
In the wake of the Financial Crisis, inflation has been low and the 10-year Treasury yield is hovering about 70 basis points above its historic closing low of 1.43 percent set on July 25, 2012.
July 29, 2013
A Student Debt Study Through the Years
The mystery, it seems, is how to explain the 25 percent decline in real (inflation-adjusted) out-of-pocket funding during the roaring '90s, when real household incomes actually rose.
July 04, 2013
Here’s an Independence Day Stock Market Look Back
The latest S&P 500 closing price is 16.6 percent above the last Independence Day but only 9.9 percent above July 4, 2000. The market performance in the intervening years has been a roller coaster of dizzying effect.
July 01, 2013
Visualizing GDP: The Consumer Is Key
Over time, the Personal Consumption Expenditures component has shown the most consistent correlation with real GDP itself.
June 28, 2013
S&P 500: Here’s How the Rally Continued
Thursday marked the third day of gains following Monday's selloff.
June 24, 2013
Taper Talk: Are Markets Due for a Correction?
The extent to which global QE has inflated asset prices is a matter of debate. But in the rhythm of the market, we're probably due for a more substantial pullback than we've seen so far, taper or not.
June 23, 2013
S&P 500: Check Out the 10-Year Yield
Tensions were high before the market opened on Friday following the severe two-day selloff following the FOMC meeting and press conference on Wednesday.
June 15, 2013
Baby Boomers Are Going Strong in the Workforce
Today nearly one in three of the 65-69 cohort and almost one in five of the 70-74 cohort are in the labor force.
June 07, 2013
Is This Stock Market Cheap?
The new high from last month is a conspicuous tick mark for the optimists, but the history of market valuations suggests a cautious perspective.
June 06, 2013
S&P 500 Snapshot: U-Turn in Advance of Friday’s Jobs Report
The U.S. benchmark index rose 0.85 percent to close at its intraday high on Thursday.
May 29, 2013
S&P 500 Snapshot: Three-Day Losing Streak Snapped
The S&P 500 is now up 16.40 percent for 2013 and 0.55 percent below the all-time closing high of May 21.
May 21, 2013
S&P 500 Goes Nowhere on Monday Malaise
The S&P 500 closed the day with a fractional loss of 0.07 percent.
May 16, 2013
S&P 500: Did the Fed Break the Four-Day Rally?
The S&P500 closed the day with a loss of 0.50 percent, breaking a four-day rally.
May 15, 2013
S&P 500: It’s the 11th All-Time High in 13 Sessions
Today was a day-trader's delight, with opportunities in both directions and a 0.51 percent closing gain for the longer term investor.
May 13, 2013
S&P 500: Squeaking Out a New High
The S&P 500 gained less than 0.01 percent to 1,633.7 to reach a record for the seventh time in eight days.
May 12, 2013
Here’s a Way to Make Sense of U.S. Employment Trends
The Labor Force Participation Rate is a simple computation: take the Civilian Labor Force and divide it by the Civilian Noninstitutional Population.
May 08, 2013
Volumes Stay Low, But the S&P 500′s March Is Untamed
The stocks staged yet another rally on Tuesday and closed at all-time highs.
May 06, 2013
Markets Make Merry With a New High in a New Week
Most U.S. stocks rose, with the S&P’s 500 extending its record level.
May 06, 2013
Is the ‘Sell in May’ Stock Fear Real?
Market lore is full of monthly associations, but has May consistently been a poor performer when it comes to stocks, investing, and returns?
May 05, 2013
Are U.S. Markets Now in Uncharted Territory?
In a "normal" market environment -- one with normal business cycles, Federal Reserve policy, interest rates and inflation -- current valuation levels would be a serious concern.
May 03, 2013
Friday’s Market Drug: Positive Economic Data
Stocks rallied to new highs, giving the Dow industrials a taste of 15,000 and pushing the S&P 500 past 1,600.
May 02, 2013
S&P 500: Last-Minute Suspense, Then New High
Stocks rallied on Thursday, with the S&P 500 flirting with 1,600.
May 01, 2013
Here’s Why the Markets Didn’t Open May With a Smile
The S&P 500 fell at the open, recovered about half its loss, and then drifted to its -0.93 percent close.
April 30, 2013
Here’s a Closer Look at the S&P 500′s Brand New All-Time High
The stock market overcame a morning slide to finish modestly higher, giving the S&P 500 index another record close and its sixth straight month of gains.