‘The Bachelorette’: How Often Have First Impression Roses Predicted Who Wins?

Dale Moss got off to a pretty good start on The Bachelorette premiere. Bachelorette Clare Crawley connected with him immediately and gave him the first impression rose. Besides the numerous rumors that Moss does end up with Crawley, his odds of winning this season are pretty good just from getting the first impression rose alone.

Clare Crawley and Dale Moss
Clare Crawley and Dale Moss | Craig Sjodin/ABC via Getty Images

What is a first impression rose?

Bachelors and Bachelorettes are tasked with meeting all of their suitors in one night. After the initial introductions, the contestants usually swarm around the lead for a chance to talk to them. Most of the time, several contestants have to go into the rose ceremony without having had any extra face time with the lead. But before the first rose ceremony, the lead gives out another rose. This first impression rose is designed to let everyone know who made a lasting impression on the lead on night one.

How often does the first impression rose winner win the whole season?

When it comes to The Bachelorette, winning a first impression rose raises your odds of winning the whole season tremendously. Crawley is the season 16 Bachelorette. Only 14 seasons of the show have even included first impression roses. Of those seasons, six of the winners received first impression roses.

In season 4, DeAnna Pappas gave her first impression rose to Jesse Csincsak, who ended up winning. Then in season 6, Ali Fedotowsky gave her rose to Roberto Martinez.

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Seasons 11-14 first impression rose winners went on to win as well. Kaitlyn Bristowe, JoJo Fletcher, Rachel Lindsay, and Becca Kufrin gave their roses to Shawn Booth, Jordan Rodgers, Bryan Abasolo, and Garrett Yrigoyen respectively. Hannah Brown broke that streak in season 15, giving her first impression rose to Luke Parker before choosing Jed Wyatt in the end.

Dale Moss stands a good chance of winning

Before Moss even won the first impression rose, it was clear that Crawley was into him. After meeting him, she even said that she thought she just met her future husband.

Later, when speaking to Entertainment Tonight, she described the meeting as “electric.”

“That was something that you can’t really anticipate with anybody, you don’t know,” she said. “[But I didn’t know] like, was he feeling that? Are we on the same page?

“Usually in my experience as relationships goes, there’s always somebody that’s ahead of the other person,” she continued. “It’s really rare that you connect on that same page at the same time, so it was just — it was one of those magical things that I guess just happens.”

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And even before meeting him, Crawley looked Moss up on social media and was a fan of what she saw.

“Dale, in a lot of his Stories, he would talk about his mom and he’d talk about his family,” she told the outlet. “He was with his family a lot and that is something that deeply resonates with me. I just felt on any level, whether it be friendship, whether it be a romantic connection, I just felt like there would be that good connection with him. But you ultimately don’t know if it’s a romantic connection, because you’re just seeing him through social media.”