Will ‘Melania’ Flop? Box Office Experts Predict a Bleak Opening for First Lady’s $75 Million Doc

Amazon MGM Studios is betting big on Melania, but the gamble might not pay off. 

The studio paid a whopping $40 million for the rights to First Lady Melania Trump’s story and sank another $35 million into marketing the documentary. But industry insiders are skeptical that the movie, which hits theaters on January 30, will be a financial success. 

‘Melania’ is a major gamble for Amazon MGM 

Filmed in early 2025, Melania follows the first lady in the 20 days leading up to her husband’s second presidential inauguration. Viewers will “step inside Melania Trump’s world as she orchestrates inauguration plans, navigates the complexities of the White House transition, and moves her family back to the Nation’s Capital,” the studio promises. The movie will also feature “exclusive footage capturing critical meetings, private conversations, and never-before-seen environments” as it showcases the former model’s “return to one of the world’s most powerful roles.”

Amazon MGM reportedly paid $40 million for exclusive rights to the doc, which is directed and produced by Brett Ratner, known for the Rush Hour series. Ratner was accused of sexual harassment in 2017; this is his first film in 12 years. Melania is also an executive producer and is said to have had creative control over how she is portrayed. 

To draw attention to the movie, the studio has also committed to a $35 million marketing blitz, according to The Hollywood Reporter, including billboards in Times Square and trailers that aired during NFL playoff games. Some theaters are even offering a Melania-themed popcorn bucket to encourage moviegoers to buy tickets.

‘Melania’ could have a $1 million opening weekend, some experts project

Amazon MGM hopes the promotional barrage entices people to get off their couch and into theaters to see the movie, which will open on Friday in at least 1,400 theaters across the U.S. (Melania will eventually stream on Prime Video.) But many industry insiders are skeptical about Melania’s box office chances. 

Tracking service NRG predicts that the movie might have a $5 million opening weekend. Box Office Pro projects a more modest $1 to $2 million in ticket sales. Box Office Theory is more optimistic, betting on a range of $4 million to $8 million. If Melania does make it to $5 million in its opening weekend, that would put it on par with the 2024 documentary Am I Racist?

Unsurprisingly, interest in the movie seems to vary by region, with advance ticket sales stronger in more politically conservative areas. (A reporter for Chron noticed a strong urban/suburban divide for advance ticket sales in Texas.) Box Office Theory says it “could be a sleeper” in “non-coastal markets.” But anecdotal reports suggest that in many cities, there are multiple screenings with zero tickets sold. Nonetheless, Donald Trump has been hyping Melania on Truth Social, calling it a “must watch” and claiming that tickets are “Selling out, FAST!”

Could ‘Melania’ be the rare documentary that does well at the box office? 

In a politically polarized era, it’s not a shock that some segments of the movie-going public are rejecting Melania outright. But even if the film wasn’t associated with a divisive presidential administration, it would still be a hard sell. Audiences rarely fill theaters for documentaries. Those that are successful at the box office often focus on more neutral topics. 

While the top-grossing documentary in the U.S. is Michael Moore’s Fahrenheit 9/11, with a total of $119 million at the domestic box office, most other hit docs focus on subjects such as nature, sports, or pop culture, including March of the Penguins ($77 million), Everest ($87 million), and Michael Jackson’s This Is It ($72 million), according to The Numbers.

Melania will face competition this weekend from Sam Raimi’s Send Help, which is expected to top the box office charts. Cold weather in much of the country could also keep people home. Another challenge? The movie’s subject is “just not that interesting,” as one user on the Box Office subreddit pointed out. 

Despite the naysayers, Amazon is confident Melania will succeed. 

“We licensed the film for one reason and one reason only — because we think customers are going to love it,” a spokesperson told CNN. 

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