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We are only two episodes into Survivor Season 43, but castaways have already started backstabbing, lying, and racing to find idols (or collecting beads to form an idol hat). And fans are loving every second of it. While the Survivor Season 43 spoilers aren’t concrete right now, some viewers think that they can predict who goes home next based on the edits.

Mike Gabler, Sami Layadi, and Jeanine Zheng, who are a part of the Baka tribe, celebrate with their fellow tribemates following a 'Survivor' Season 43 challenge. The group is hugging.
Baka Tribe: Mike Gabler, Sami Layadi, and Jeanine Zheng | Photo: Robert Voets/CBS

Which two castaways were the first to leave ‘Survivor’ Season 43?

At the first immunity challenge, Baka lost, which meant they would be the first tribe to join host Jeff Probst at Tribal Council. Mike Gabler, who struggled during the challenge, had already earned an immunity idol from a summit. He told his tribemates that he wouldn’t be playing his idol but would play his Shot in the Dark.

At Tribal Council, Gabler ended up not playing anything. And Morriah Young was unanimously voted out of the tribe since she was perceived as the physically weakest member.

At the second immunity challenge of season 43, Vesi lost. And they seemed to be following the same strategy Baka did during episode 1 — target the weakest castaway. Many wanted to vote out Nneka Ejere because she struggled during the challenge. However, Cody Assenmacher and Jesse Lopez didn’t want to lose their alliance member.

Right before Tribal Council, Cody found a Beware Advantage and opened it. It told him that he had to collect beads from his tribemates to form an immunity idol. But until he did so, he didn’t have a vote. Thankfully, Cody pulled off this task before heading to Tribal Council with the help of Nneka and Jesse. And they voted out Justine Brennan, blindsiding Noelle Lambert and Dwight Moore.

Fans theorize the next boots

Following Survivor Season 43 Episode 2, one fan started a Reddit thread predicting the next boots from each tribe.

They said, “I think the first Coco boot will be Geo [Bustamante]. He’s been getting a lot of emotional content, and I feel like unless it’s just before merge, Ryan [Medrano] is too invaluable to lose … He also just screams first tribe boot to me.”

“My current prediction [for Vesi] is Cody, the Reddit user added. “I think Jesse will once again be the swing vote and once again make the sounder strategic decision. Jesse is at the bottom of a three-person alliance, and given Noelle and Dwight are less tight than Nneka and Cody, I think Jesse will jump in with them and get rid of Cody.”

They added, “[Baka] is the hardest for me. It’s not Gabler, and I just can’t imagine it being Elie [Scott], so that leaves Jeanine [Zheng] and Owen [Knight] and Sami [Layadi] … I think Owen is slightly more likely than Jeanine just because he is higher maintenance.”

Another fan commented, “The fact that Gabler said in the preview that ‘she has to go’ makes me think that both Elie and Jeanine are safe. If Baka does go to Tribal, I can see Owen teaming up with Elie and Jeanine and [tricking] Gabler into misplaying his idol, and he goes out.”

“We saw Karla [Cruz Godoy] point out that Ryan is a threat because of how close he is to Geo, so that could have been the editors planting the seed for how Ryan gets voted off,” one person predicted. “I also wouldn’t be surprised if Vesi goes on a major losing streak and we lose Cody, Noelle, and Nneka all before the merge. I think Jesse is going to run that tribe with an iron fist, and he’ll drag Dwight along with him.”


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Who will be the next to go in ‘Survivor’ Season 43?

There’s an infinite amount of probabilities regarding Survivor Season 43. But judging from the edit, one can theorize who’s safe and who’s not.

The preview for episode 3 is likely a misdirect, and we can assume that Jeanine will be safe. Just because Gabler finds out about her snooping through her bag doesn’t mean she’s done for. In fact, it likely proves the opposite because why would Survivor spoil the next boot in the preview? And since Gabler has an idol, Owen would probably be the next person to leave from the Baka tribe.

If Baka doesn’t go to Tribal Council in episode 3, we could see Geo from the Coco tribe leaving. They set up his story in episode 2 and his close relationship with Ryan just to say goodbye to him in episode 3.

If Vesi goes to Tribal Council for the second time in a row, Noelle is in trouble of getting voted out. But that depends on whether Cody, Nneka, and Jesse stay strong as an alliance.

Survivor Season 43 airs Wednesdays at 8 p.m. ET on CBS.