Justin Bieber Favored to Headline Super Bowl Halftime Show, But He’s Unlikely to Take It
The NFL season is already moving past its fourth week. While there is plenty of football left to play, we can’t help but look ahead to the Super Bowl and, more specifically, the halftime show. The NFL hasn’t announced its next performer yet, but prediction markets already have their favorites. Betting trends suggest Justin Bieber is a frontrunner for the honor, but there is plenty of reason to believe he wouldn’t take the job even if it were offered to him.
Bieber leads the betting
Each year, football fans and casual viewers alike spend weeks debating who might take the stage at the Super Bowl halftime show. This year, prediction markets point to a handful of frontrunners, and Justin Bieber is near the top of the list.
On Polymarket, traders give Bieber the highest chance of any artist, 55%, of performing at the 2027 halftime show, just ahead of Jay-Z at 53%. Because that market counts any performer, it also reflects the possibility of a guest appearance. Polymarket isn’t the only market in town, though, and the picture shifts depending on where you look. Kalshi’s headliner market, as of October 1, had Jay-Z leading at 50%, followed by Harry Styles at 34%, Miley Cyrus at 29%, and Bieber at 13%. Bieber’s odds have swung all year: Back in July, Polymarket briefly had him at 65%.
What are the predictions based on?
On paper, Bieber is a natural fit for this year’s show. He’s in the middle of a career resurgence after headlining day two of Coachella and delivering a stripped-down performance of “Yukon” at the Grammys in February. Both followed the release of his albums SWAG and SWAG 2 last year. After stepping back from the stage but not from controversy and speculation, a return to a platform as big as the Super Bowl could be a major moment for Bieber.
Analysts also point to his big-stage sporting experience. Bieber was part of the halftime show for the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final this summer. If he was willing to do that, it’s not a stretch to think he could be interested in the Super Bowl, too.
On the wish list, but probably not interested
While bettors might like to think Bieber is a shoo-in, he probably isn’t interested. According to TMZ, sources say Bieber is high on Roc Nation’s short list of potential performers, but that he is unlikely to take the gig. The sources didn’t say why he would pass on such a major stage.
Artists can have plenty of reasons to say no, from scheduling conflicts to the significant time commitment. The NFL also doesn’t pay its halftime headliners a performance fee. Instead, artists usually take the gig for exposure and a bump in streaming revenue and ticket sales, especially when they have new music to promote. For a star of Bieber’s stature, the exposure may not be much of a draw.
If Bieber does turn it down, it wouldn’t be the first time he’s skipped the Super Bowl stage. In 2024, Page Six reported that Usher tried to recruit his former protégé for his halftime set, but an industry source said Bieber simply wasn’t up for it.
