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Netflix keeps subscribers entertained with a constant stream of new TV shows. The streamer has released dozens of new titles so far in 2026 alone, including The Boroughs, Little House on the Prairie, and I Will Find You, as well as new seasons of Virgin River, Bridgerton, and Love Is Blind. 

But all that content comes with a downside. When shows don’t perform up to Netflix’s expectations, it doesn’t hesitate to pull the plug. The company has become notorious among viewers for its unsentimental approach to cancellations, which sometimes leaves fans outraged and vowing to cancel the service. 

Is it possible to predict which Netflix shows are on the chopping block? While the internal metric the company uses to make its decisions aren’t available to the public, it’s possible to make some educated guesses about which shows might not return. That’s what odds-analysis platform CSB recently did. 

Netflix is likely to cancel this series from ‘Derry Girls’ creator

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CSB’s team calculated the cancellation odds for every Netflix show that is still in limbo. They looked at several factors, including how long Netflix has gone without making a public announcement. When Netflix is feeling good about a show’s prospects, they typically make a renewal decision within 28 days of its launch. The longer the silence, the less likely a renewal. In addition, they factored in how many weeks the appeared in Netflix’s Global Top 10, critic and real viewer scores on Rotten Tomatoes and IMDb, and ranking on IMDb’s live popularity index. Each show was assigned a number; the higher it is, the more likely the show gets cancelled. 

The analysis revealed several shows that are unlikely to return with more episodes. The series with the worst odds is How to Get to Heaven From Belfast, a mystery-comedy from Lisa McGee, the creator of Derry Girls. It premiered in February 2026. While it has excellent ratings on Rotten Tomatoes, with a 95% positive score from critics, it never appeared in the Global Top 10. Five months after its release, Netflix hasn’t uttered a peep about whether it will return for season 2. 

The future is also look shaky for Beef. The second season of the limited series launched in April 2026 with an all-new cast and a fresh beef leading to an epic feud. In the first four days after its release, viewership was down 60% compared to season 1. Netflix has remained mum about the show’s future, but the series did recently snag multiple Emmy nominations, including for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series. That could give the show some much-needed momentum.

Netflix likely to renew ‘Man on Fire’ 

Of course, predictions aren’t infallible. CSB’s analysis predicted a dim future for crime drama Nemesis. This show, which stars Matthew Law as an LAPD detective caught in a cast-and-mouse game with a master thief, didn’t make a big splash when it launched in May. Critics reviews were fairly positive, but viewers were lukewarm. That gap was a bad sign for a potential season 2. But Netflix renewed the show in late June. 

The analysis also predicts high renewal odds for Netflix’s latest partnership with Harlan Coben, I Will Find You. That show is a limited series, so fans can’t count on a season 2. But given the popularity of Coben’s twisty crime dramas, the streamer will likely continue to work with the best-selling author. 

Thriller series Man on Fire is still in limbo, but given strong viewership numbers, it’s likely to return. The same is true for Korean drama Teach You a Lesson. 

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