Oscars 2023: ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ and ‘Avatar: The Way of Water’ Prove Blockbuster Sequels Are Academy Favorites

The 95th Academy Awards are right around the corner, and fans are eagerly waiting to see which 2022 movies will win some of the night’s big prizes. Everything Everywhere All At Once dominated the year’s nominations with 11 nods, followed by All Quiet on the Western Front and The Banshees of Inisherin with 9 nods. But in addition to those movies, the Oscars made room for the two highest-grossing films of 2022.

The Oscars returned to 10 Best Picture nominees in 2023

For many years, the Academy Awards only allowed for five nominees in the biggest and most prestigious category: Best Picture. But following the controversial snub of The Dark Knight at the 2009 ceremony – and in a bid to boost ratings by giving fan-favorite movies a better chance to compete – the Oscars changed the rules to allow for a sliding scale of up to 10 nominees. But with the 95th Academy Awards, the rules are changing yet again. 

As opposed to previous years wherein only eight or nine movies make it into the Best Picture category, the 2023 edition has a fixed 10 slots for films competing for the award. In addition to Everything Everywhere All At Once, All Quiet on the Western Front, and The Banshees of Inisherin, critical darlings like The Fabelmans, TÁR, Triangle of Sadness, and Women Talking as well as the crowd-pleasing Elvis are nominated.

Oscars 2023 features several blockbusters up for the big prize

Those final two slots went to Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar: The Way of Water. Both films are long-awaited sequels to huge hits, received strong reviews from critics, and made a killing at the box office. Director Joseph Kosinski’s Top Gun: Maverick – which dominated the box office most of the year – earned $1.5 billion worldwide. That makes it the biggest hit of star Tom Cruise’s career and nearly the year’s uncontested box office champ.

Then James Cameron’s Avatar: The Way of Water was released in December 2022. That film has since gone on to earn more than $2.1 billion worldwide. As of this writing, it’s currently the fourth highest-grossing movie of all time, behind Avatar, Avengers: Endgame, and Titanic. Both Avatar and Titanic went on to win Oscars – with Titanic taking 11 awards, including Best Picture – but does Avatar: The Way of Water stand a chance of winning the night’s biggest prize too?

Could either the ‘Top Gun’ or ‘Avatar’ sequels actually win?

While some fans were pleased with the Best Picture line-up, others were less than enthusiastic. “The Best Picture category is a mess. 10 films are way too many. Like .. there’s a place for everybody!” one user wrote on Reddit. Meanwhile, another called this “one of the best Best Picture lineups in years!” But with two such mainstream hits in there, the question remains: does either Top Gun: Maverick or Avatar: The Way of Water have a chance of winning?

According to most pundits, Everything Everywhere All At Once is the clear frontrunner for the award. The Banshees of Inisherin and The Fabelmans are next in line, followed by perhaps Top Gun: Maverick. The entire academy votes for Best Picture, and the organization uses a preferential ballot to determine what wins. So the way voters rank the nominees depends on what comes out on top. With all the love for Top Gun: Maverick, it’s definitely a dark horse.

The 95th Oscars will air live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2023.